Mortgage Rates This Week – April 3, 2024

Mortgage rates dropped today following President Trump’s tariff announcement, which was significantly more expansive than the markets expected. Stocks are selling off, and we’re seeing a flight to safety into bonds, which is helping push rates lower. The 30-year fixed rate currently sits at 5.625%, 5.858% APR with points, and 6.375%, 6.410% APR with 0 points for borrowers with excellent credit and 25% down on a Single-Family Primary Residence.

Before any tariffs were implemented, most of the talk was about their impact on inflation and the potential for rates to move higher; however, since the first tariffs were announced several weeks ago, we’ve seen rates decline as the markets weight the impact of a slowing economy and lower demand vs. the potential of higher prices. If the tariffs are sustained, it will be interesting to see how the markets react to higher prices and likely higher inflation data in the coming months. Forecasts for future rate cuts immediately adjusted higher from 2 cuts expected by the end of the year to 4 cuts, now being the most likely based on the CME Groups FedWatch tool.

With all the political noise, we still have to pay attention to economic data, and tomorrow, we have the big monthly BLS Non-Farm Payroll Report, which, without yesterday’s announcement, would be the sole focus of the markets. Expectations are for a fairly weak jobs report, although the unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4.1%. If we get a softer-than-expected number and the unemployment rate comes in higher than expected, I would expect to see rates continue to rally lower and possibly test the lowest levels we’ve seen since early October of last year. The risk of rates reversing and moving drastically higher due to the employment report is minimal. Even if the report beats estimates, I wouldn’t expect rates to shoot higher, given the focus on tariffs. With that said, any sign of a reversal in the tariff policy would likely result in rates moving back up.

For those expecting the President to quickly reverse course on tariffs due to the stock market sell-off, I would remind everyone that one of the administration’s big goals was to lower rates, focusing specifically on the 10-year Treasury. Based on the market’s reaction, they’re getting their wish as the 10-year is down over 0.50% since Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly stated plans to bring down historically high interest rates in early February.

Last week, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation (PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures, showed headline inflation rose  0.3% for the month, with year-over-year inflation flat at 2.5%. The core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also rose 0.4%, and annual core inflation was up from 2.7% to 2.8%. Helping rates from popping higher was personal spending, which rose by 0.4%, which was below the expected 0.5% increase. Overall, there are a lot of signs the economy is slowing; however, inflation is staling out, which is increasing fears of stagflation.

Earlier in the month, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures wholesale inflation, came in flat for February and 3.2% year over year, which was well below expectations. The core rate, which strips out food and energy prices, was -0.1%, much lower than expected. The annual rate came in at 3.4%, which was also cooler than expected. Overall, this report would generally cause rates to move lower; however, components within the report that are shared with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report rose, which tempered optimism for lower future inflation.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation rising 0.2% for the month and decreasing from 3% to 2.8% year-over-year, below estimates. The core reading, which removes volatile food and energy costs, increased 0.2% in February and moved down from 3.3% to 3.1% annually.

Purchase demand has spiked with the start of the spring buying season, as expected. Even with inventory improving, we’re once again seeing bidding wars on high-demand homes priced competitively. Clients who choose to get a fully underwritten preapproval are seeing more success getting offers accepted.

To find the most affordable rate, compare different lenders and collaborate with a company that offers transparent mortgage rates and costs online. Experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers can guide you through the current market conditions and chart the most effective course forward.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
04/03/2025

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

California Mortgage Rates

National Average Mortgage Rates:

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Without a doubt, the biggest driver of interest rates is inflation. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is running well above the Fed’s annual target of 2%, pushing the Fed’s hand to raise short-term rates to slow things down. While current numbers remain elevated, we expect a significant reduction in the inflation readings in the coming months as various factors moderate the pace of inflation.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) February = 0.2% – Annual = 2.8%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) February = 0.0% – Annual = 3.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) February = 0.3% – Annual = 2.5% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

Loan Limits Increased For 2025

Loan limits have increased for 2025. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $806,500, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,037,300 for 1-unit properties in 2024.

Visit our 2025 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California,, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits for 2025, visit our pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.

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